It's been a little while since the last "who'll win the format war" argument (at least a week) and here's one I missed from a few days ago. HD Beat's Ben Drawbaugh lists his reasons why Blu-ray will win, and they're not bad.
1. Price: at least for the people who have money to spend and aren't out for the cheapest format (they'll get HD DVD) will buy into Blu-ray.
2. Perception: Because of higher price, Blu-ray will be perceived as better. Look at the iPod - not necessarily the best, and more expensive, but totally dominant.
3. Head Start: Does it really matter who came to market first. VHS/Beta: Compare.
4. Technology: Blu-ray has more capacity (though I've read there's room in the spec for a 45Gb triple-layer HD DVD, there's also room for a 100Gb Blu-ray (I think))
It's an interesting read, unless you're just totally fed up with the whole debate...
How can anyone really tell and using the iPod is not the best example either.
I don't think we will know until end of next year which format is the most dominant, never mind the actual winner of the two.
I am starting to get fed up with the format war too . . . It really depends on how well the Playstation 3 is received, as well as which titles are avaialable for each format to entice the customers - The higher price is not good for uptake of standalone Blu Ray players, over USD $1000 is too high for mass market success (DVD only exploded when cheap players became available). Also anyone who is considering spending that kind of money on a standalone player will probabaly have the intelligence to compare the two formats and then find ouhe AV quality is virtually identical. The launch of both have been terrible, the industry is simply not fully behind it yet.
VHS vs Beta
Beta 1st to market, was technically the better product in terms of image quality. Got shafted by VHS on price. It very niaive to believe blueray will win because its a 'better product'
IMO its too early to even think about who will 'win', in the UK we've not even seen any HD DVD players or content in the retail channel.
The fact that we have a format war means that one thing is for certain - whoever wins, its not the consumer.
DVD overtook VHS because it offered better picture and sound, smaller form factor and offered better margin for the manufacturers.
There is one thing having HD DVD and Blueray guarentees - todays standard def DVD is going to be around for alot longer than VHS survived when DVD hit the scene.
I agree that SD will be hard to beat because it is cheap and everywhere, the qulity gap has narrowed between SD and HDTV because of various improvements in SD over traditional PAL or NTSC TV, for example anamorphic DVD is actually very good and you rarely see badly mastered DVD movies these days, sometimes it is hard to tell the difference between a good quality DVD and some poorer quality HD (especially with compression) so it's an uphill battle, especially considering the negative points such as the format war. I love HD and own both Sky HD and HD-DVD but I am realistic and know it is going to be an uphill battle, especially seeing the laclustre support from the hardware manufacturers and studios. I hope things improve or HD could be another SACD - a great product that takes way too long to penetrate the market.
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