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Sobering thoughts: 10 reasons why HD DVD formats have already failed

Hdtvbluray_8About Electronics has posted a list of 10 reasons from Audioholics as to why the high definition DVD formats have already lost. It's an interesting read. Here's my take on it all:

1. Nobody likes false starts

They say 720p/1080i is underwhelming, HDMI 1.3 has been delayed, first-gen HD DVD drives have been buggy... I don't think this will have so much of an impact on perception in the UK as we've not been exposed to the technology for as long as the US.

2. Format wars don’t sell players

"a format war is NOT competition, it is a hindrance and the bane of high definition DVDs." Absolutely. Given that there's little perceivable quality difference (if any) between the formats - it really comes down to storage capacity which the average consumer doesn't care about so long as their film is on one disc. People choose hardware because of the content it provides, generally.

3. HD DVD and Blu-ray are NOT quantum leaps in technology

"there is no compelling reason for consumers to migrate over to the new high definition DVD formats in large numbers." The argument is that, unlike the advent of CDs and then DVDs, which offered a whole new set of features over what was technologically available previously, there's not enough of an advantage in these new formats to woo the average consumer, many of whom have only just got into DVDs. That may well be the case here - indeed some manufacturers have admitted they don't expect to sell large quantities of next-gen DVD stock straight away.

4. Studios are conservative, greedy and unmotivated

You don't say? The relatively small number of overpriced titles coming out is not appealing to the public who are used to cheap DVD movies. Studios could force a 'winner' out of HD DVD and Blu-ray if they scaled up production on one format and gradually scaled back DVD production.

5. PlayStation3 cannot save the world

"The result is that the PS3 will primarily be a *gasp* gaming system." Well quite. First and foremost the PS3 is about gaming. I've always thought the Blu-ray argument was secondary.

6. Those who ignore history…

"technology alone is never enough to push a new format into the hands of consumers." Here they talk about DVD-Audio and SACD, two warring audio formats that could've near-solved music piracy, but never made it because they weren't aggressively pushed, were complicated for end-users, and poorly implemented.

7. People want technology that’s 15 minutes ahead of its time

"For many people, getting into HDTV is all about the widescreen and being able to see their DVDs with more clarity than ever before. When Billy Bob comes home with his new high definition 720p display, the difference between that and his older SD TV is amazing – at least when he’s watching DVDs. You see, that’s the problem – and it’s two-fold. While most consumers are still getting into the HDTV craze, they’re already impressed. And the difference between SD TV and HDTV is more amazing than the difference between 480p DVDs and 1080i downrezzed high definition discs." I'm not sure exactly what the point here is, except that the perceived quality difference between UK SD TV and HD TV is less dramatic than US SD TV.

8. Enthusiasts are getting tired (and smarter)

"Burned by 8-track, laserdisc, SACD, and DVD-Audio (and possibly soon non-HDCP HDTV) – these war-weary consumers are going to think long and hard before jumping onto any new technological bandwagons." The early-adopter market is shrinking, they suggest. HD disc technology could take longer to reach a large audience.

9. A sceptical news media doesn’t help

I think that's us. I think we're not overly sceptical here at HDTVUK, except when a manufacturer makes some seemingly impossibly grand claim. A bigger problem is the misleading media - deliberately or simply through lack of knowledge. Fact is, there are so many technological jargon terms flying around associated with hD, sometimes it's hard to keep up, particularly when manufacturers feed us all a lot of hype.

10. Broadband and IPTV to compete?

"we may find that consumers are far more interested in quantity, portability, and ease of use over high quality source material. Even with respect to high definition formats, downloadable files burned to consumer-supplied media may make data high definition DVDs more significant than the retail formats"

I think it's going to be quite some time before we see mass infiltration of quality web streaming in the UK. The 'availability over quality' issue is an interesting one. Living in a YouTube generation, I can partly understand this, but isn't there still a place for both? Sure, I love having access to millions of grainy 640x480 user-generated videos, but it's not end-of-the-week-big-movie-on-big-screen-relaxation, is it? I think HD movies on physical discs have a lot to offer for the foreseeable future.

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Posted by Andy Merrett on October 5, 2006

Comments

Actually I disagree. I have hd-dvd and it is leaps and bounds better than dvd. Its also a great upconverter for regular dvds. I do agree fromat wars are bad but for those of us that love movies and better sound and picture options its a wonderful thing.

Posted by: Jamie | October 5, 2006 12:03 PM

Well said, good article and you didn't even mention Betamax - Sony have been there before.

Posted by: Michael | October 5, 2006 1:34 PM

u might want to re-edit the to hidef DVD (though Blu-ray cannot be considered as 'dvd') ... "HD DVD" is for HD DVD. It cannot be used to refer to both HD DVD and Blu-ray

Posted by: g55555sim | October 5, 2006 1:54 PM

I think that the fundamental issue here is that never in the history of television has the medium undergone such a radical change as going from SD to HD. Sure, we've seen widescreen tellies, but that isn't anything compared to the massive change in resolution and fundamental difference in technology that is going from SD to HD. So I say to all you negative people : Have patience! Already we're seeing the first 1080p sets become available and I really believe they'll eventually become the standard. It's all downhill from here. The sets will become cheaper, the format wars will (eventually) be resolved and broadcasters will eventually adopt HD instead of SD.

Those are my two cents.

B.

Posted by: Bjarkovic | October 5, 2006 3:10 PM

I agree with some of it, there was definately a false start, the format war is bad and there are not enough titles but the rest is overly negative. It's sad fact that some mainstream consumers are a bunch of morons, and that many are only just discovering DVD (probably by finding they can get pirate movies at car boot sales) but there is another side of the mainsteam consumer market who buy into new technology (look at how huge the digital camera and PC market is now), who buy T3 and Stuff magazines and who are buying new HD ready TV's and collect lots of DVD's. It's tru that the latter have been driven by falling prices of high specification consumer entertainment products and it's also tru that this mass takeup has pushed prices down further - these are the people who will make or break HD-DVD. It's my opinion that the cheaper format will win, Blu-Ray will have an uphill battle and will eventually either converge with HD-DVD or risk a slow death leaving only PS3 owners with a small batch of titles. I love Sony but look at the proprietary format history: Elcasette, Betamax, ATRAC, Minidisc, Memory Stick, MicroMV, UMD, MMCD, HIFD, SACD - when will they learn? You should note that Sony eventually introduced VHS, MP3 and SD Card players and if they lose the Blu Ray stakes you can expect to eventually see combi Blu-Ray/HD-DVD players too. Sony is playing a dangerous game, they no longer are the best - Panasonic is currently making better products and Trinitron is dead, Apple has the iPod and they face increasing competition in almost all market sectors. The fact is that with the UK market both HD Disc formats will have a tough time until they converge and players are cheap, in the meantime SKY HD will rule and it will be even harder for the disc formats when SKY eventually replaces SKY Plus with SKY HD, gives the boxes away for free and introduces more HD channels. Astra has announced something like 120 HD channels in Europe by 2012 - who will be buying discs by then? what advantage will a physical disc hold for the average consumer over SKY? Not much I think, both formats could be history and only for serious collectors who want the extras so my opinion is that this is a short term thing, we are in a transitional period and all physical media formats will be the loser over the next 5 years - they must converge soon or either and possibly both formats will die.

Posted by: Simon Harris | October 6, 2006 4:37 AM

There a couple of points that Simon Harris raises that I feel warrant a response. Firstly, those that have both $ky HD and HD-DVD players claim that the HD-DVD experience is a clear winner, yielding better picture quality. If true, the fact that HDTV will be beamed to us pre-supposes that it will match quality-wise - if not, then the over-the-air delivery vehicle is less compelling. Secondly, there have been a number of articles that speculate that by 2010, SD-DVD purchases will still play a significant part in the market place. Foolish will be the studio that kills-off a recognised revenue stream hoping that Joe Punter will suddenly switch to the 'new' format. Thirdly, most commentators significantly underestimate the 'collectability' factor of CDs and DVDs. Many people want to build a library that they can dip into as and when they want, and will not be dictated to either by DSat schedules or networked server availability. Next, whilst manufacturers busily try and herd us towards their next 'best thing', they fail to take into account the buying cycles that people have, and their budgets. If someone, such as myself, has already invested in a plasma panel that's not HD ready, I can't afford to junk it just to get HD capability - I'll keep going with it until such time as I have to replace it. You only have to look at the forthcoming analogue terrestrial switch-off plans in the UK to appreciate that any migration to a new format takes a lot longer than manufacturers and broadcasters appreciate (and would like). Finally, there's the fact that the leap from SD-DVD to HD is nowhere near as pronounced as the leap from VHS to SD-DVD was. The need to migrate to HD, whilst desirable, is nowhere as compelling for most people.

My personal take is that like CDs, SD-DVDs will be with us for a long time yet. CD and vinyl sales are in the increase, and the SD-DVD, like CDs, is a commodity product. Studios might not like that, but until you can buy a Blu-Ray/HD-DVD player for £19.99 in your local Tescos along with some cheap DVDs, the format I believe will remain 'eliteist'; and unless, via DSat or cable delivery, you can watch HD versions of all of the films that you have in your SD/HD/BD disc library now as and when you want, take-up of such services will never fully replace what we have now. Don't get me wrong: I'm looking forward to moving to HD/BD at some point, but not before the format war is over, as I suspect are a lot of 'Joe Punters' out there. I don't buy into the delivery of films via Dsat or the internet - if I can't hold a copy of a film that I want to watch in my grubby mitts, then I'm not interested.


Clem

Posted by: Clem Dye | October 6, 2006 8:31 AM

Great comments, thanks. Yep I fell over with using 'HD DVD' generically. I guess that's one small advantage of HD DVD, even the name feels generic. I'll try m=not to use it again in this way.

Posted by: Andy Merrett | October 6, 2006 11:51 AM

I totally agree with Clem Dye on the fact that the average user needs to have titles and equipment available, preferably cheaply. Like I said in my previous comment, though, I think that the fact that this is a new format just means it will take time. Patience is a virtue. Remember that.

Posted by: Bjarkovic | October 6, 2006 10:22 PM

i think they will take off with ps3/360 backing. itll come down to who has the most sales when the movie studios decide to standardise i recon. so it will basically be luck.

personally i like hd-dvd, i think it works nicely with dvd in name more than anything else. for your average jo, they can see what hd-dvd is trying to say. when they see bluray they will just think its some ps3 relating thing.

Posted by: lex | October 8, 2006 3:00 PM

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