CES 2008: Blu-ray press conference upbeat, sales numbers a bit low?

One side of the disc debate definitely not cancelling their press conference is the Blu-ray Disc Association.

Stuart liveblogged the event so if you want the nitty-gritty, head over there.

Here's the main points:

• In 2007, Blu-ray sold 64% of total HD discs, compared to 36% HD DVD (Home Media Research figures).
• Globally, Blu-ray took 66% disc sales, and 65% of hardware (including PS3).
• 1/2 million Blu-ray players and 3m PS3s on the market.
• 2 million Blu-ray players and 4 million PS3s to be sold in 2008.
• 5 million Blu-ray discs sold in 2007 (US market).
• 40 million Blu-ray discs to be sold in 2008.
• Need to keep reminding people that PS3 is a Blu-ray player, not just a games console.
• Next phase: developing the interactive features of Blu-ray.
• PS3 to PSP Blu-ray film transfer function coming end of year.
• Aim going forward to “establish the inevitability of Blu-ray”
• 80% of US consumers know the Blu-ray brand now, compared to 25% in Christmas 2006.

There were also some interesting questions from the audience:

Eminent UK journalist David Phelan is sitting next to me, and has just asked what the PS3-to-PSP feature means for UMD movies. It's a good point – if you can get a film onto your PSP by buying a Blu-ray disc, why would you ever buy a UMD? One for the fanboys to debate.

A question about pricing? It's up to individual companies says Andy Parsons, although he points out that prices did come down in 2007, which had a positive impact on the format. He won't be drawn on the future though.

A question – might they run a trade-in programme letting swap their HD DVD players for Blu-ray players? Everyone laughs. No plans for this though, although Parsons says it's been suggested several times to them recently.

A question about possible consumer backlash as new players come out with interactive features, that won't work on older Blu-ray players. If you buy a new movie and can't use the swizzy new interactivity, will you be pissed off, in other words? Parsons says the same thing happened with DVD – progressive video, which became a standard without early adopters complaining too much.

A question about Blu-ray recording, which is available in Japan but not outside. Parsons takes this one, and says it's a decision for individual hardware manufacturers. There's nothing stopping them, he says. But he points out that hard-drive based DVRs have taken a strong position in the marketplace, and that is a factor.

The panel are all from the software side, so they're not answering. I wonder why hardware people aren't here on-stage to answer those kind of questions.

So, what if Paramount and Universal DON'T also switch to Blu-ray, how will the Blu-ray group convince consumers that the format war is over? Beeks says it'll be down to retailers – in other words, as they drop HD DVD (if they do), consumers will have the choice made for them.

Question: did Blu-ray camp pay Warner a sum to abandon HD DVD? Sanders shouts out “I wish! We have a 42 billion dollar worldwide market, so any payments would be a drop in the ocean compared to the risk of getting it wrong.” Is that a firm no?

What about multi-format discs – with Blu-ray and standard definition on one disc? Kaye takes this one, and says they don't want to sacrifice capacity on a Blu-ray disc to hold a standard-def version to be played on DVD players, although he accepts they could package a separate DVD with a Blu-ray disc.

Back to the recorder question, someone suggests the reason they're not coming out in the West is copyright issues – too good a copy, so the studios wouldn't like it. Chapek says some of this gets taken care of with DRM. Studios will be able to provide the ability to make a copy soon, for whatever price they choose. So it's not a worry for them. “I personally think the issue is somewhat moot,” he says.

Sanders says consumers really want playback devices, not recorders -and suggests this was shown with DVD recorders in the past. “They just want it for playback, they'll use other devices for timeshift.”

More questions: will we see more deep catalogue titles on Blu-ray? Stuff aimed at general consumers, not “the nerds”. Chapek says one of the biggest moments for Disney in DVD was bringing out Snow White, which showed consumers that this was a properly mass-market technology. So they're doing the same thing with Sleeping Beauty next October.

Bishop chimes in, and points out that most of the panel lived through the launch of DVD. So in the early days, it was about releasing library product important to the early adopters, but he says they want to lead in the next level of consumers by releasing more and more library content.

Now a question on regional encoding. Will it be made any clearer where your Blu-ray disc will play? At the moment it's just a tiny A or B on the packaging, so people might travel, pick up some Blu-ray discs, and they won't play. “It stops Europeans taking advantage of the dollar rate,” says the questioner, Barry Fox – he's a UK journo. What, he ends, do the lawyers make of that?

The panel is laughing, but they're all shifting about in their seats. Apparently Barry asked the same question last year at this press event. And there's no answer.

Next question: as capacity increases, will there be new audio codecs? Parsons says not at this stage, due to the incompatibility potential. He also says the codecs in Blu-ray now are good enough, even for audiophiles.

Last question, is Warner's Blu-ray exclusivity global, or US-only? It's global.

Oh, now it's the last question. When will we get some TV-based Blu-ray discs, rather than movies. Lost is apparently out, but not much more. Kaye says we'll see more TV Blu-ray discs in the next year, as the studios try to broaden the audience.

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